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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still